EURUSD
- EUR/USD Price: The EUR/USD pair trimmed intraday losses and stabilized around 1.1230 during Friday’s European session, as the US Dollar softened slightly despite strong labor data. However, the pair remains under broader downside pressure amid divergent monetary policy expectations.
- US-China: US President Trump continues his hardline stance toward China, appointing a new envoy to Beijing and warning that tariff exemptions will be limited. The cautious approach to trade negotiations contributes to market unease and intermittent USD strength.
- Jobless Claims: Initial jobless claims fell to 228,000, better than expected and down from the prior week’s 241,000. The robust data reinforces the resilience of the US labor market, giving the Fed more room to maintain a hawkish tone in upcoming meetings.
- ECB Rate Cut: Markets have begun pricing in further easing by the European Central Bank (ECB), potentially as early as June. The increasing divergence between the ECB and Fed outlooks is capping EUR/USD upside and keeping the euro under sustained selling pressure.
- ECB Officials: Despite acknowledging downside risks to the Eurozone economy, ECB policymakers maintain confidence that inflation will return to the 2% target by year-end. This mixed messaging adds ambiguity to the timing and extent of any policy moves.
| SMA (20) | Rising |  | |
| RSI (14) | Slightly Falling |  |
|
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Falling | |
Closing statement: EUR/USD is holding near short-term support but faces continued headwinds from hawkish Fed expectations and a dovish ECB trajectory. With trade tensions persisting and eurozone growth concerns deepening, the pair remains vulnerable to further downside unless US data or Fed communication softens.
GBPUSD
- GBP/USD Price: The pair trades under pressure early Friday, hovering below the 1.3240 level, as the US Dollar continues to attract strong demand, supported by improving sentiment over US trade negotiations and broader macro stability.
- US-UK Trade Deal: President Trump announced a “major” trade deal with the UK, but optimism was tempered by the retention of key tariffs at 10%, leading to muted market reaction. Investors remain cautious on the deal’s long-term implications for the GBP.
- BoE Rate Cut: The Bank of England delivered a widely expected quarter-point rate cut on Thursday, reflecting ongoing concerns about UK economic momentum and inflation pressures. The policy move was already priced in, limiting any immediate directional impact.
- Governor Statement: BoE Governor Andrew Bailey avoided specifics on future rate paths but reiterated a “gradual and careful downward” approach, signaling a measured easing cycle. This stance added to Sterling’s underperformance relative to the USD.
- Exchequer Chancellor: Chancellor Rachel Reeves welcomed the rate cut, yet emphasized the ongoing cost-of-living crisis, reinforcing the view that monetary policy alone may not be sufficient to address economic challenges.
| SMA (20) | Rising | | |
| RSI (14) | Slightly Falling | |
|
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Falling | |
Closing statement: GBP/USD remains under downside pressure, with US Dollar resilience and cautious BoE guidance weighing on sentiment. Without fresh bullish catalysts or progress on tariff relief, the pair may struggle to regain upward momentum in the near term.
XAUUSD
- XAU/USD Price: Gold slid to fresh weekly lows below $3,300 early Friday after being rejected from the $3,400 resistance area. The drop also saw a decisive break below the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,306, signaling weakening bullish momentum.
- US-China: Investor focus shifts to the upcoming US-China trade discussions in Switzerland this weekend, involving top officials from both sides. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chief Trade Negotiator Jamieson Greer will meet with China's Vice Premier, He Lifeng, over the weekend.
- Geopolitical Tensions: Both Russia and Ukraine reported continued military activity on the first day of the Russian-declared three-day ceasefire. These events offer limited safe-haven support for gold, but failed to halt the broader technical-driven correction.
- China Gold Reserves: China’s sixth consecutive month of gold reserve expansion underscores ongoing central bank demand, acting as a longer-term supportive factor for the precious metal, even if short-term sentiment is bearish.
- FedSpeak: A slew of Federal Reserve officials is scheduled to speak on Friday, and their tone will be closely scrutinized for hints on future rate moves. Any hawkish tilt could further strengthen the USD, potentially extending gold's downside.
| SMA (20) | Rising | | |
| RSI (14) | Slightly Rising | |
|
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Falling | |
Closing statement: Gold faces a technically driven pullback, compounded by stronger USD demand and cautious optimism over US-China talks. While geopolitical risks and central bank buying offer longer-term support, short-term bias remains bearish unless gold reclaims key resistance above $3,344.
CRUDE OIL
- Crude Oil Price: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is trading near $60.20 per barrel, extending its bullish run after gaining nearly 4% in the previous session. The upside is supported by a strong drawdown in US inventories and heightened geopolitical tensions.
- OPEC+ Output Plans: Despite short-term gains, OPEC+’s plans to increase production continue to weigh on the medium-term outlook. A Reuters survey showed a slight decline in April output, driven by disruptions in Libya, Venezuela, and Iraq, but planned hikes may limit further upside.
- US Sanctions: Washington’s latest sanctions on two smaller Chinese refiners purchasing Iranian oil have led to operational disruptions, with the companies reportedly reselling oil products under alternate identities. This adds complexity to global supply flows but has not materially tightened markets yet.
- Geopolitical News: Tensions remain high in the Middle East, with Israel escalating actions against Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen, and India-Pakistan border concerns also resurfacing. These risks provide a mild geopolitical floor for crude prices.
- Inventory Data: The EIA reported a crude stock draw of -2.032 million barrels, outpacing forecasts of -0.833 million. The API’s earlier report showed an even larger draw of -4.49 million, reinforcing expectations of improving demand or tightening supply.
| SMA (20) | Falling | | |
| RSI (14) | Slightly Rising | |
|
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Falling | | |
Closing statement: Crude oil remains buoyed by inventory drawdowns and geopolitical risks, though OPEC+ supply intentions and Chinese refinery sanctions create a complex backdrop. Near-term sentiment is bullish above $60, but further upside may require clear geopolitical escalation or confirmation of sustained supply tightening.
DAX
- DAX Price: The DAX rose 1.02% on May 8, lifted by growing hopes that a US-UK trade deal could pave the way for a broader US-EU agreement. Investor sentiment was also buoyed by a slate of strong German corporate earnings.
- Technical Outlook: The index now trades well above both its 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), reinforcing bullish momentum and suggesting continued investor confidence in the near term.
- Corporate Results: Major German firms delivered positive surprises - Rheinmetall rallied 4.13% after reaffirming its outlook to surpass 2025 guidance. Siemens Energy gained 3.32% after topping earnings estimates.
- Economic Data: Despite solid March data—exports up 1.1% and industrial production jumping 3%—market reaction was subdued, possibly due to expectations of pre-tariff front-loading and cautious optimism about the sustainability of the rebound.
- FedSpeak: Investor attention will now shift to upcoming speeches from FOMC members Goolsbee, Waller, and Williams. Their remarks could influence global risk appetite, particularly if they hint at a shift in US monetary policy stance.
| SMA (20) | Rising | | |
| RSI (14) | Rising | | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Rising | | |
Closing statement: The DAX’s advance is backed by improving corporate earnings, trade optimism, and supportive technicals, though external risks such as US policy signals and trade developments remain pivotal for sustaining the rally above recent highs.
