Daily Analysis 10/12/2025

• GBP/USD Price: GBP/USD trades slightly higher near 1.3320 in early European hours, supported by mild Sterling demand.
• Consumer Weakness: A major survey shows UK households cut spending at the fastest pace in nearly five years, delaying Christmas purchases amid cost pressures.
• Rate Expectations: Markets price an ~88% chance of a 25 bps BoE cut in December, reflecting easing inflation signals and softer data, per Reuters.
• GDP Focus: Investors await Friday’s UK monthly GDP release, which will offer fresh insight into near-term economic momentum.
• US Data: The US NFIB small business optimism index rose slightly to 99.0 in November, with current price changes rising while future pricing plans held steady.

Closing statement: GBP/USD holds firm as traders balance softer UK consumer trends with high confidence in a December BoE cut and mixed US data inputs.

• XAU/USD Price: Gold edges higher during the European session, touching a fresh weekly top on Wednesday but lacking strong follow-through buying momentum.
• China Inflation: China’s November CPI printed at 0.7% y/y, a 21-month high driven by food prices; core CPI held at 1.2%, while PPI stayed in deflation at -2.2% y/y.
• Labor Market: US job openings rose to 7.67 million in October, surpassing expectations and adding support to the US Dollar.
• USD Softness: Despite recent gains, the Dollar struggles to extend its upward momentum as markets maintain dovish Fed expectations, offering stability for Gold.
• Geopolitic News: Comments from Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy rejecting territorial concessions to Russia add geopolitical tension, lending additional support to the safe-haven metal.

Closing statement: Gold holds a mildly positive bias as geopolitical risks and softer USD sentiment offset strong US labor data, keeping XAU/USD supported near weekly highs.

• Crude Oil Price: WTI falls further early Wednesday in the European session, trading around $58.20 per barrel.
• Russia Flows: Crude flow from Lukoil’s West Qurna-2 storage tanks has resumed toward the major Tuba depots after a weekend shutdown caused by a pipeline leak.
• Stockpile Draw: A larger-than-expected API-reported draw of 4.8 million barrels in US crude stockpiles may help limit downside pressure on WTI.
• Inventory Trend: US crude inventories have posted a net increase of only 121,000 barrels year-to-date, based on Oilprice calculations of API data.
• China Buying: China ramped up purchases of Saudi crude for January to the highest level in five months after Saudi Arabia cut its official selling prices for Asia to a five-year low premium.

Closing statement: WTI remains supported by tighter US inventory dynamics and renewed demand from China, while resumed Russian flows prevent a more aggressive upside move.

• DAX Price: The DAX continues pushing toward 24,200 points as markets await the Federal Reserve’s guidance later today.
• Debt Context: Germany’s total economy-wide debt ratio stands at 260%, roughly 100 percentage points below the average for industrialized nations.
• Insolvency Rise: Corporate bankruptcies in Germany are increasing, with around 23,900 expected by year-end, the highest level since 2014.
• US–China: The US administration reported progress with China on agricultural purchases and semiconductor exports, including approval for NVIDIA H200 shipments under a fee structure.
• Sentiment Hit: European sentiment softened after US President Donald Trump criticized regional leaders as “weak” in an interview published on Tuesday.

Closing statement: The DAX retains upward momentum despite rising domestic insolvencies and softer regional sentiment, with markets focused on the upcoming Fed guidance for further direction.