Daily Analysis 13/03/2026

• GBP/USD Price: The GBP/USD moved back into negative territory during the European session on Friday, slipping below the 1.3300 level. The decline reflects renewed demand for the US Dollar and softer UK macroeconomic data.
• UK GDP: Data released by the Office for National Statistics showed that United Kingdom Gross Domestic Product for January remained unchanged at 0.0% month-on-month, missing expectations of 0.2%. The weaker-than-expected reading raises concerns about the momentum of the United Kingdom economy.
• BoE rate: Financial markets are increasingly confident that the Bank of England will cut interest rates at its upcoming policy meeting. Expectations of looser monetary policy are adding further pressure on the British Pound Sterling.
• UK Government: During the annual Spring Statement, Rachel Reeves argued that recent economic developments support the government’s strategy for growth. The finance minister emphasized that current policies reflect what she described as the “right economic plan” for the country.
• US data: Investors now await the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure. Additional indicators due later today include the JOLTS Job Openings report and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for March.

Closing statement: GBP/USD remains under pressure due to weaker UK economic data and rising expectations of a Bank of England rate cut, while upcoming US inflation and labor market data could drive the pair’s next short-term move.

• XAU/USD Price: The XAU/USD reversed much of its earlier advance and slipped toward the lower end of its daily range during the European session on Friday. The pullback in gold reflects a stronger US Dollar and cautious investor sentiment.
• Trump tariffs: The administration of Donald Trump initiated two new trade probes under Section 301 after the Supreme Court of the United States previously struck down global tariffs. The investigations focus on excess industrial capacity in major trading partners, including China, the European Union, and Japan, as well as forced labor concerns in global supply chains, potentially paving the way for new tariffs by summer.
• Iran signals: Mojtaba Khamenei stated that keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed should remain a tool to pressure adversaries. Any disruption to this critical energy route could significantly affect global Crude Oil supply and financial markets.
• Australia's oil: Chris Bowen, Australia’s Energy Minister, announced that Australia will release up to 762 million litres of fuel from its reserves. The measure aims to offset potential supply disruptions caused by escalating tensions linked to Iran.
• Inflation risks: Rising energy costs could reignite inflation pressures and force the Federal Reserve to delay expected interest-rate cuts. Higher rates typically act as a headwind for non-yielding assets like gold, limiting the metal’s upside potential.

Closing statement: Gold remains sensitive to geopolitical developments and inflation expectations. While safe-haven demand provides support, stronger inflation risks and the possibility of delayed Fed rate cuts are currently capping further gains in XAU/USD.

• Crude Oil Price: The West Texas Intermediate price stabilized around $96.10 per barrel during the European session on Friday after recent volatility. Movements in Crude Oil continue to reflect heightened geopolitical risks and uncertainty surrounding global supply routes.
• Tanker attacks: Two oil tankers in waters near Iraq were reportedly struck by explosive-laden boats linked to Iran, prompting Iraq to suspend operations at several oil ports. Meanwhile, Oman moved vessels away from its primary export terminal as a precaution, highlighting growing security risks in the region.
• Shipping waiver: The administration of Donald Trump is considering a temporary waiver of the Jones Act to mitigate fuel price spikes and supply disruptions linked to the conflict with Iran. Such a waiver would allow foreign ships to transport goods between United States ports, potentially easing domestic shipping constraints.
• Reserve release: Although the International Energy Agency announced a record release of 400 million barrels from strategic reserves, market participants remain skeptical about its effectiveness. According to Reuters, the volume would cover only about 25 days of the current supply disruption.
• Russian oil: Overnight, the United States Department of the Treasury issued a 30-day waiver permitting countries to purchase stranded Russia oil currently held at sea. The measure aims to temporarily increase supply and ease pressure on global energy markets.

Closing statement: Crude oil prices remain elevated as geopolitical tensions and tanker attacks threaten key shipping routes. While emergency policy measures and reserve releases may provide temporary relief, persistent supply risks continue to support oil prices in the near term.

• DAX Price: The DAX is trading around 23,360 points on the tenth trading day since the outbreak of the conflict involving Iran. Persistent geopolitical uncertainty and volatile energy markets continue to weigh on investor sentiment across European equities.
• Wholesale prices: Data from Destatis showed that German wholesale prices increased by 1.2% year-on-year in February. The rise in Wholesale Price Index suggests ongoing price pressures within supply chains, partly influenced by higher energy and commodity costs.
• Vincorion IPO: VINCORION, together with its major shareholder STAR Holdings, has set the fixed offer price for its planned initial public offering at €17 per share. The company intends to list on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange, marking a notable entry into the regulated German equity market.
• Mercedes-Benz pricing: Mercedes-Benz Group reported a decline in its average selling price per vehicle, which dropped to €68,100 in 2025 from a peak of €74,200 in 2023. The decline highlights increasing competitive pressure and changing demand dynamics in the global automotive market.
• Volkswagen strategy: Volkswagen aims to strengthen its position in China as the first model developed with XPeng enters mass production. The partnership reflects efforts by European automakers to regain competitiveness in the rapidly evolving Chinese electric vehicle market.

Closing statement: The DAX remains under pressure from geopolitical risks and inflationary concerns, while corporate developments in Germany’s automotive and defense sectors continue to shape market sentiment.