EURUSD
- EUR/USD Price: EUR/USD extends its fourth straight session of gains, trading near 1.1780 during Tuesday’s European hours, signaling continued bullish momentum.
- ECB Policy: ECB’s Peter Kazimir warned against overreacting to minor inflation deviations, noting rates are now in neutral territory but highlighting upside inflation risks.
- France Growth: ECB’s Villeroy acknowledged that French growth remains positive though not strong, insisting that France is unlikely to become the euro area’s laggard.
- Eurozone Dynamics: ECB board member Isabel Schnabel stressed that rates are at appropriate levels but noted domestic demand strength is offsetting weak exports, keeping upside inflation risks in play.
- Upcoming Data: Markets will watch for Italy’s inflation, the ZEW Survey in Germany and the Eurozone, and Euro area Industrial Production, alongside a speech by ECB’s Jose Luis Escriva for fresh direction.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Rising |  |
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| RSI (14) | Rising | | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Rising | | |
Closing statement: EUR/USD trades steadily higher at 1.1780, underpinned by ECB’s firm stance on inflation and resilience in domestic demand. The pair’s near-term path will likely hinge on Eurozone data releases and central bank commentary, with risks skewed toward sustained strength if inflation concerns persist.
GBPUSD
- GBP/USD Price: GBP/USD posts modest gains near 1.3625 during Monday’s European session, reflecting cautious optimism in the pair.
- Labor Market: UK’s July ILO unemployment rate held steady at 4.7%, matching expectations, while employment change came in stronger at +232k vs +220k forecast, showing resilience in the labor market.
- BoE Policy: Fitch Ratings projects two 25bp rate cuts in September and December, with additional easing penciled in for 2026, reinforcing expectations for a gradual dovish shift in monetary policy.
- US Policy: The confirmation of Lisa Cook as Fed Governor ensures her participation in Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, where markets anticipate a 25bp rate cut, potentially weighing on the US Dollar.
- US Data: Traders eye the release of Retail Sales (expected to dip in August) and Industrial Production (forecast to slow further), both of which could shape Fed sentiment and USD direction.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Rising | |
|
| RSI (14) | Rising | | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Rising | | |
Closing statement: GBP/USD holds near 1.3625, supported by a resilient UK jobs report and expectations of Fed easing. The pair’s trajectory will hinge on US data releases and the FOMC decision, with risks tilted toward further upside if USD weakness persists.
XAUUSD
- XAU/USD Price: Gold (XAU/USD) consolidates near $3,680, holding just below its fresh all-time high touched earlier on Tuesday, as investors pause after the strong rally.
- Political Development: The Senate narrowly confirmed Stephen Miran as a Federal Reserve governor in a 48-47 vote, adding a new Trump-backed voice to the Fed’s policy discussions.
- Trade War: Ongoing friction in trade talks between the US and South Korea continues, while Japan’s auto sector faces 15% tariffs compared with 25% on South Korea’s exports, raising risks of further trade disputes.
- US Data: Markets expect Retail Sales to slow to +0.3% MoM (vs +0.5% prior) and Industrial Production to contract -0.1%, pointing to softer economic momentum and potential USD downside pressure.
- Fed Guidance: Traders focus on the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and dot plot, which will reveal policymakers’ outlook on growth, inflation, and the future path of rate cuts.
| SMA (20) | Rising | | |
| RSI (14) | Rising | | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Rising | | |
Closing statement: XAU/USD remains anchored near record highs as weak US data expectations and Fed policy uncertainty sustain demand. Momentum will hinge on the SEP and dot plot, which could set the tone for gold’s next breakout attempt.
CRUDE OIL
- Crude Oil Price: WTI crude trades slightly higher around $63.10 per barrel on Tuesday, extending Monday’s modest gains. The market remains supported by geopolitical tensions but capped by demand-side concerns.
- Russian Oil: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed the US will not impose tariffs on Chinese goods tied to Russian oil unless Europe takes parallel measures, highlighting transatlantic divisions on sanction enforcement.
- US-China Trade: President Trump struck an optimistic tone on upcoming trade talks with President Xi, while reiterating threats to ban TikTok unless Beijing softens tariff and tech demands. Energy markets remain sensitive to US-China negotiations.
- Geopolitical Risks: Tensions intensified as Poland downed a drone over its presidential palace and deployed 40,000 troops to the Belarus border in response to Russia’s Zapad-2025 drills, adding to regional security risks.
- Ukraine Conflict: Russia launched major strikes on Zaporizhzhia, following Ukrainian attacks on its oil facilities. Trump’s calls for tougher action against Moscow reinforce oil’s geopolitical risk premium.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Falling |  |
| RSI (14) | Slightly Falling | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Falling | |
Closing statement: Crude oil remains supported by escalating geopolitical risks in Europe and ongoing US-China trade uncertainties. Short-term momentum points upward, but price action may stay volatile around geopolitical headlines.
DAX
- DAX Price: The DAX trades slightly higher, up 0.2% at 23,760 points on Tuesday. Price action remains muted as traders await fresh catalysts from economic data and global central bank decisions.
- German Data: Attention is on the ZEW Survey for August after last month’s decline in both current conditions and growth expectations, raising questions about the resilience of Germany’s economic recovery.
- Corporate Developments: Aumovio shares, spun off from Continental, will temporarily join the DAX for one day on Thursday, in line with exchange rules. This allows index investors to manage the new allocation smoothly.
- Geopolitical Headlines: An emergency Arab-Islamic summit condemned Israel’s attack on Hamas leaders in Doha and called for suspending Israel’s UN membership. Rising tensions add to geopolitical risk sentiment in global markets.
- Global Data: Traders eye upcoming US Retail Sales and Industrial Production releases, though impact may be limited. Focus shifts to BoC (Wed), BoE (Thu), and BoJ (Fri) for direction on global monetary policy.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Falling | |
| RSI (14) | Slightly Falling | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Falling | |
Closing statement: The DAX remains steady, with domestic sentiment tied to ZEW data and corporate moves like the Aumovio spin-off, while global risks—from Middle East tensions to major central bank meetings—keep volatility risks elevated.
