Daily Analysis 18/03/2026

• GBP/USD Price: The GBP/USD is holding steady around the 1.3360 area during European trading on Wednesday, following gains in the previous two sessions. The consolidation reflects cautious positioning ahead of key macro and central bank events.
• BoE decision: The Bank of England is widely expected to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.75% at its March meeting. Market participants remain focused on guidance regarding future policy amid persistent inflation risks.
• JP Morgan: According to JPMorgan Chase, the BoE is likely to maintain current interest rates throughout the year. The outlook is based on expectations that inflation will remain above the 2% target, largely due to elevated Natural Gas prices.
• Labor market: Investors are awaiting upcoming UK employment data, particularly the ILO Unemployment Rate, which is projected to rise slightly to 5.3% from 5.2%. Labor market conditions will be a key factor in shaping future Bank of England policy decisions.
• Middle East: The Israel Defense Forces reportedly killed senior Iranian figures, including Ali Larijani and Gholamreza Soleimani. In response, Iran launched missile strikes on Tel Aviv, intensifying geopolitical risks and supporting safe-haven demand for the US Dollar.

Closing statement: GBP/USD remains range-bound as traders await the BoE decision and UK labor data, while escalating geopolitical tensions continue to influence broader market sentiment and currency flows.

• XAU/USD Price: The XAU/USD continues to consolidate around the $5,000 psychological mark during the European session. The muted price action in Gold reflects investor caution ahead of major central bank decisions.
• Fed's Powell: Markets are awaiting the outcome of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, with particular attention on remarks from Jerome Powell. His guidance on interest rates will be key, especially amid concerns that rising energy prices could fuel inflation.
• Iran signals: Amir Hatami, Iran’s army chief, warned that the country’s response to recent high-level assassinations will be decisive. Escalating tensions involving Iran continue to support safe-haven demand for gold.
• Political pressure: Domestic pressure is mounting on Donald Trump as Joe Kent resigned in protest over the Iran war. While Trump suggested that US military operations could end “in the near future,” he indicated that withdrawal is not imminent.
• CB decisions: Policy updates from major central banks, including the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, and the Bank of England, are expected to drive volatility. Diverging monetary policy signals could create trading opportunities for the XAU/USD pair.

Closing statement: Gold remains range-bound as traders await key central bank decisions, with geopolitical risks providing underlying support while interest rate expectations cap stronger upside momentum.

• Crude Oil Price: The West Texas Intermediate is trading below $93 per barrel, down more than 2.5% on the day and close to its weekly low. The pullback in Crude Oil suggests fading bullish momentum despite ongoing geopolitical risks.
• Iraq-Kurdistan: A new agreement between Iraq and the Kurdish region to reroute oil via pipelines toward Turkey is expected to modestly alleviate supply constraints. The development could provide some relief to both the Iraqi economy and global oil markets.
• US inventories: Data from the American Petroleum Institute revealed a sharp increase of 6.556 million barrels in US crude inventories for the week ending March 13. The unexpected build signals softer demand or increased supply, weighing on prices.
• Russian oil: Major state-owned energy firms in China have resumed buying crude from Russia, including supplies from companies like Rosneft and Lukoil. The move aims to offset supply disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz.
• UAE gas: The United Arab Emirates has suspended operations at a key gas field in Abu Dhabi following a direct attack attributed to Iran. The escalation underscores persistent threats to energy infrastructure in the Gulf region.

Closing statement: Crude oil prices are under pressure from rising inventories and supply adjustments, though geopolitical risks in the Middle East continue to provide underlying support and keep markets highly volatile.

• DAX Price: The DAX is set to open Wednesday’s session with gains, currently trading around 23,850 points in futures markets. This suggests improving short-term sentiment despite recent volatility.
• ZEW sentiment: The ZEW Economic Sentiment Index showed a notable divergence in March. While the current conditions component improved, expectations dropped sharply into negative territory, signaling growing concerns about future economic growth.
• Fuel prices: The Germany is taking action to curb fuel price volatility driven by geopolitical tensions. New draft legislation aims to limit how frequently gas stations can raise prices, increasing regulatory pressure on energy suppliers.
• Aumovio numbers: Aumovio reported a significant rise in operating profit despite lower sales, with adjusted pre-tax profit up 45.5%. The performance reflects successful cost-cutting measures following its spin-off from Continental AG.
• JPMorgan rating: JPMorgan Chase lowered its price target for Beiersdorf and downgraded the stock to “Neutral.” The move may weigh on sentiment toward consumer-sector equities within the index.

Closing statement: The DAX is benefiting from a positive technical setup, but weakening forward-looking indicators and cautious corporate outlooks suggest that upside momentum could remain limited in the near term.