Daily Analysis 19/03/2026

• GBP/USD Price: The GBP/USD has lost upside traction and slipped back toward 1.3270 during European trading. The move reflects cautious sentiment following mixed UK data and broader USD strength.
• Labor market: Data from the Office for National Statistics showed the unemployment rate holding steady at 5.2%, better than expectations of a rise to 5.3%. At the same time, job creation surprised to the upside with 84K new positions, signaling some resilience despite underlying weakness.
• BoE rates: The Bank of England is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.75% with a 7–2 vote split. Policymakers are likely to maintain a gradual easing bias as labor market softness persists.
• JP Morgan: Analysts at JPMorgan Chase suggest the BoE could move toward an extended pause. Persistent inflation pressures, partly driven by geopolitical tensions, reduce the likelihood of near-term rate cuts.
• Powell's words: Jerome Powell indicated he intends to remain in his role until an ongoing investigation concludes and a successor is confirmed. This signals policy continuity at the Federal Reserve, supporting USD stability.

Closing statement: GBP/USD remains under pressure as stable UK data is offset by cautious BoE expectations and steady US monetary policy, leaving the pair biased slightly to the downside in the near term.

• XAU/USD Price: The XAU/USD struggles to build on its intraday recovery and trades around $4,770, marking its lowest level since early February. This indicates persistent selling pressure despite brief stabilization attempts.
• PPI numbers: Data from the US Department of Labor showed Producer Price Index (PPI) rising 0.7% m/m and 3.4% y/y, the strongest annual increase since February 2025. Elevated producer prices reinforce concerns about sticky inflation in the US economy.
• Fed outlook: The Federal Reserve upgraded its 2026 growth outlook and now expects only one rate cut this year and another in 2027. This more hawkish stance supports the US Dollar and weighs on non-yielding assets like gold.
• Middle East: Strikes targeting Iran’s South Pars gas field have intensified tensions in the Middle East. The escalation, coupled with warnings from Donald Trump, highlights rising risks to global energy infrastructure.
• US data: Markets now turn to key US releases, including Weekly Jobless Claims and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, for short-term direction. These indicators could influence USD strength and gold price movements.

Closing statement: Gold remains under pressure from stronger US inflation data and a more hawkish Fed outlook, with geopolitical tensions offering only limited support in the near term.

• Crude Oil Price: The West Texas Intermediate is trading around $95 per barrel during early European hours. Prices remain elevated as markets continue to price in geopolitical risk and supply disruptions.
• Military presence: The United States is reportedly exploring a broader military campaign against Iran, including deploying additional troops. This escalation risk continues to underpin oil prices through fears of prolonged supply instability.
• Jones Act: The Trump Administration is expected to issue a 60-day waiver on the Jones Act shipping rules. This could allow more flexibility in domestic fuel transport, helping to ease logistical bottlenecks in US energy markets.
• Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia is ramping up exports via its Yanbu port on the Red Sea, with flows projected to hit a record 3.8 million barrels per day. This shift comes as shipments through the Strait of Hormuz remain severely constrained.
• Alternative supply: Countries like India, the Philippines, Thailand, and New Zealand are exploring increased imports from Russia, while African producers such as Angola and Algeria are also emerging as alternative suppliers. This reflects a broader reshaping of global energy trade flows.

Closing statement: Crude oil remains supported by geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions, though increased output rerouting and alternative sourcing could help limit further upside in the near term.

• DAX Price: The DAX is expected to face another setback, trading around 23,120 points. Rising oil prices and weak signals from the US are weighing heavily on overall market sentiment.
• Eurozone inflation: Final February data confirmed inflation at 1.9% y/y, with core at 2.4%. These figures, aligned with earlier estimates, keep the European Central Bank under pressure as it prepares its rate decision.
• US-Japan Summit: A key meeting between Sanae Takaichi and Donald Trump is taking place in Washington. Markets are watching closely as geopolitical dynamics and trade relations could influence global risk sentiment.
• Vonovia signals: Vonovia expects a return to growth, forecasting EBITDA between €2.95-3.05 billion for 2026 under CEO Luka Mucic. This points to stabilization after a challenging period for the property sector.
• BMW rating: BMW remains rated “Neutral” by RBC Capital Markets, with a slightly reduced price target. This reflects cautious optimism but limited upside in the current environment.

Closing statement: e DAX remains under pressure from macro and geopolitical factors, and while some corporate outlooks are improving, broader sentiment suggests limited upside in the near term.