EURUSD
- EUR/USD Price: The pair trades sideways near 1.1630 in early Monday trading, reflecting market indecision. Subdued volatility is driven by conflicting macroeconomic signals and cautious sentiment ahead of further data or trade developments.
- ECB's Nagel: Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel reiterated concerns about Fed influence on markets, calling central bank independence crucial for anchoring inflation expectations. His comments signal ECB’s continued hawkish tone amid global uncertainty.
- Eurozone Construction: Construction activity in the Eurozone plunged 1.7% MoM in May, reversing April’s 1.7% gain. Broad-based declines across building, civil engineering, and specialized services indicate weakness in the real economy, potentially limiting EUR upside.
- EU Trade: EU Chief Trade Negotiator Sefcovic remarked that the final phase of the US-EU trade negotiations is “the most difficult.” Persistent trade uncertainty could keep EUR gains capped until concrete progress is made.
- Current Account: The Eurozone current account surplus rose to €32.3 billion from €19.3B, driven by strong goods and services exports. This reflects solid external demand and positive balance of payments dynamics, offering a supportive backdrop for the euro.
| SMA (20) | Rising |  | |
| RSI (14) | Slightly Rising | |
|
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Falling |  |
Closing statement: EUR/USD remains range-bound as positive external balances are offset by soft construction data and trade deal uncertainty. Hawkish ECB rhetoric offers some support, but the pair may lack strong direction until firmer US-EU trade progress or economic surprises emerge.
GBPUSD
- GBP/USD Price: The pair edges higher for the second straight session, trading near 1.3420 in early European hours. Gains are modest as traders await fresh catalysts, with a softer US Dollar providing mild upward momentum.
- BoE Rate Cut: Despite the pair’s uptick, the British Pound remains pressured by growing market consensus that the Bank of England may cut rates in August. Dovish sentiment is intensifying as investors reassess the economic outlook.
- BofA Outlook: Bank of America has revised its forecast, now expecting two BoE rate cuts—one in August and another in November. This aligns with similar calls from Goldman Sachs and Citi, reinforcing the market’s dovish narrative.
- US Housing Data: June housing starts came in at 1.321M, above the 1.300M estimate, while building permits were also slightly stronger at 1.397M vs. 1.390M expected. The numbers offer mild support to the US Dollar but were not enough to halt GBP/USD’s upward drift.
- Governor Bailey's: Traders now shift focus to BoE Governor Andrew Bailey, who is set to testify before the UK Treasury Select Committee on Tuesday. His comments could offer crucial forward guidance on the bank’s rate path and inflation outlook.
| SMA (20) | Rising | | |
| RSI (14) | Falling | | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Falling | | |
Closing statement: GBP/USD trades with a bullish tilt but remains vulnerable to dovish BoE expectations. Market sentiment is cautious ahead of Governor Bailey’s testimony, which may determine whether the pair can extend gains or retreat below key resistance levels.
XAUUSD
- XAU/USD Price: Gold prices trade with mild gains around $3,360 in the early European session on Monday. The move reflects a cautious risk tone, with investors positioning ahead of macro and geopolitical developments.
- Fed’s Waller: Despite being one of the more dovish Fed members, Governor Waller’s latest comments — noting the labor market is "okay" and private sector underperforming — have limited influence. Markets are less responsive to his dovish tone than earlier in the year.
- Tariff Deadline: US Commerce Secretary Lutnick confirmed August 1 as the firm deadline for trading partners to begin tariff payments. This injects short-term uncertainty into the market, with potential implications for risk appetite and gold demand.
- US-Japan Trade: Treasury Secretary Bessent stated a deal with Japan is still possible, but emphasized quality over speed. While not directly impacting gold, ongoing trade uncertainties continue to support a mild safe-haven bid for the metal.
- Consumer Sentiment: The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 61.8 in July, beating expectations of 61.5. This stronger-than-expected data slightly dampens gold's upside, as improved sentiment may reduce demand for safe-haven assets.
| SMA (20) | Neutral | |
| RSI (14) | Slightly Rising | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Neutral |
Closing statement: XAU/USD trades modestly higher as global trade tensions and mixed US economic signals fuel cautious positioning. However, firm consumer sentiment and muted Fed impact on rate expectations may keep gold gains limited in the near term. Investors will be closely watching developments ahead of the August 1 tariff deadline.
CRUDE OIL
- Crude Oil Price: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices trade modestly higher on Monday, edging up to $66.00 per barrel from Friday’s close at $65.98. The move reflects a cautious recovery, though momentum remains limited.
- OPEC Outlook: OPEC continues to project a 1.3 million bpd increase in global oil demand, significantly above the IEA’s estimate, which forecasts demand rising by only half that. OPEC's steady forecast suggests confidence in near-term consumption trends.
- India Signals: India’s Oil Minister indicated that the country could diversify oil imports away from Russia if needed, citing potential increases in supply from Iran and Venezuela. His remarks help soothe market concerns about geopolitical supply disruptions.
- US Inventory Data: The latest US inventory report showed a sharp drop in crude stocks, but this was offset by rising gasoline and distillate inventories, leaving price momentum neutral. Markets await more decisive supply-demand signals.
- Oil Sanctions: The 18th EU sanctions package, which includes a G7 price cap cut to $47.60 and crackdowns on shadow fleet tankers, has not impacted prices significantly. The muted response suggests traders had already priced in such measures or doubt their effectiveness.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Rising | |
| RSI (14) | Neutral | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Falling | |
Closing statement: Crude oil prices remain rangebound, supported by bullish OPEC projections but constrained by mixed inventory data and weak sanctions impact. Traders are watching for fresh demand signals and geopolitical developments to drive the next directional move.
DAX
- DAX Price: The DAX declined by 0.33% on Friday, July 18, erasing part of Thursday’s 1.51% surge and closing the week marginally higher at 24,290. The move reflects a market pause and consolidation after strong earlier gains.
- Index Stocks: Uncertainty over a US-EU trade deal led to losses in Germany's key export sectors, particularly automotive stocks, with Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Volkswagen, and Porsche all retreating. Healthcare and tech shares also saw declines, as they may be targeted in any tariff escalation.
- Merz’s Statement: Chancellor Merz's statement on a potential asymmetrical trade agreement raised questions about EU’s negotiation leverage. Markets interpreted this as a potential sign that the US may secure more favorable terms, which could weigh on European equities.
- Investment Initiative: Over 60 major German firms, including Siemens and Deutsche Bank, launched the “Made in Germany” initiative, pledging €631 billion in investments by 2028. This move is designed to reinforce investor confidence in Germany’s long-term industrial and economic resilience.
- ECB Rate Cut: The European Central Bank is widely expected to hold interest rates in the upcoming meeting — the first pause in almost a year. This is driven by growing concern over potential fallout from higher US tariffs, which may slow the eurozone’s recovery.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Rising | |
| RSI (14) | Slightly Rising | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Rising | |
Closing statement: The DAX showed signs of short-term caution, dragged by trade uncertainty and sector-specific pressures. However, long-term optimism remains, supported by massive domestic investment plans and the ECB’s likely pause in rate hikes. Market direction will hinge on US-EU trade negotiations and ECB’s policy tone in the days ahead.
