EURUSD
- EUR/USD Price: EUR/USD is trading near 1.1800, while the US Dollar Index (DXY) holds around 97.35, reflecting modest dollar strength as both currencies digest mixed economic data.
- US Data: The US S&P Global Composite PMI slipped to 53.6 in September, below forecasts and prior readings of 54.6. Despite the slowdown, the reading remains above 50, signaling ongoing though softer expansion in the US economy.
- Eurozone Data: In contrast, the Eurozone Composite PMI ticked up to 51.2, slightly above expectations and August’s 51. The Services PMI climbed to 51.4, showing gradual improvement in business activity across the bloc.
- Fed Commentary: Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman described last week’s quarter-point cut as a first step toward neutrality, warning of potential rapid labor market weakness. She signaled readiness for faster policy adjustments if risks escalate.
- Policy Outlook: Markets expect the Fed to deliver two more cuts this year, as policymakers balance elevated inflation against signs of moderating growth. This dovish tilt could weigh on the dollar if Eurozone data maintains resilience.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Rising |  |
| RSI (14) | Slightly Rising | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Rising | |
Closing statement: EUR/USD remains range-bound near 1.1800, with divergent PMI trends supporting the euro while dovish Fed guidance caps dollar strength. The pair’s short-term direction hinges on incoming US data and evolving rate expectations.
GBPUSD
- GBP/USD Price: GBP/USD trades lower near 1.3510 in early European hours on Wednesday, extending its weakness as sterling faces renewed downside pressure from poor domestic data.
- UK PMI: The September flash PMI survey showed broad-based declines, with the key services PMI falling from 54.2 to 51.9. This signals a slowdown in Britain’s largest sector and raises concerns over the durability of growth momentum.
- Economic Concerns: S&P Global’s Chris Williamson highlighted a worrying mix of weakening growth, falling trade, slumping confidence, and steep job losses, painting a bleak picture for the UK economy heading into Q4.
- Fed Commentary: Fed’s Austan Goolsbee noted that while rates could be cut if inflation trends lower, he is not considering 50 bps cuts, describing current policy as only “mildly restrictive.” His remarks reinforce expectations for gradual, not aggressive, easing.
- Policy Watch: Markets now look to BoE External Member Megan Greene’s speech later on Wednesday, which could provide further clarity on the central bank’s stance amid the UK’s deteriorating economic outlook.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Rising | |
| RSI (14) | Slightly Falling |  |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Rising | |
Closing statement: GBP/USD remains under pressure near 1.3510, with weak UK PMI data amplifying economic concerns. While Fed comments favor gradual cuts, the sterling’s outlook hinges on BoE signals as markets weigh growth risks against policy credibility.
XAUUSD
- XAU/USD Price: Gold attracts strong bids and climbs back to an all-time high above $3,770 during Wednesday’s European session, reflecting renewed safe-haven demand.
- Powell's Speech: Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivered a cautious tone in his latest speech, avoiding commitment to a rate cut at the next meeting. This lack of clarity disappointed dovish investors but kept gold supported as uncertainty lingers.
- Geopolitical Risk: The Russia-Ukraine conflict has escalated, with both sides accusing each other of deadly drone strikes on civilian areas. This intensification of fighting boosts safe-haven flows into gold.
- China’s Gold: Reports suggest China is courting foreign gold reserves in a bid to strengthen its global influence, underlining the strategic role of gold in global finance and adding another layer of long-term support.
- Data Ahead: Focus now shifts to the US PCE Price Index for August, due Friday, which could provide fresh signals on inflation and influence expectations for Fed policy and gold’s trajectory.
| SMA (20) | Rising | | |
| RSI (14) | Rising | | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Rising | | |
Closing statement: Gold remains well-bid above $3,770, supported by heightened geopolitical risks, Fed caution, and China’s gold ambitions. Traders will look to the US PCE data for the next decisive catalyst.
CRUDE OIL
- Crude Oil Price: WTI crude trades at $63.30 per barrel in Wednesday’s early European session, slipping from Tuesday’s close at $63.56.
- Supply Disruptions: Prices had gained earlier as Iraq’s Kurdistan region kept its pipeline to Turkey offline, with flows halted since March 2023. Producers demand debt repayment guarantees before resuming shipments, prolonging supply tightness.
- Geopolitical Tensions: NATO accused Russia of airspace violations over Estonia, Poland, and Romania, raising regional security concerns. Moscow denied the claims, attributing them to baseless European accusations.
- Inventory Data: API data showed a 3.8M-barrel draw in US crude stocks, the sharpest in seven weeks, intensifying worries over supply tightness after a prior 3.4M-barrel decline.
- Policy Outlook: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen reiterated plans to end Russian oil purchases by year-end and halt all Russian energy flows to Europe by 2027, adding a long-term geopolitical supply angle.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Falling | |
| RSI (14) | Slightly Rising | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Falling | |
Closing statement: Crude oil remains under pressure near $63.30, balancing supply concerns from Kurdistan and US inventory draws against geopolitical risks and EU’s push to cut Russian energy. The market awaits further clarity on Middle East supply flows and official US stockpile data.
DAX
- DAX Price: The DAX hovers around 23,600 points, with Wednesday expected to open weaker as the index struggles to establish a clear direction.
- German Data: Germany’s business activity accelerated, reaching its strongest level since May 2023, in contrast to France, where the composite index showed a deeper contraction, reflecting political headwinds.
- Global Growth: The OECD raised growth forecasts for many major economies in 2024, but notably excluded Germany. The organization also warned that Trump’s escalating trade war remains a significant global risk.
- Geopolitical Flashpoints: Middle East tensions flared as Hamas escalated rocket attacks on Israel, while the Trump administration warned Israel against annexing the West Bank.
- Ukraine Developments: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said he will speak with US President Trump regarding battlefield updates and security guarantees, while pushing Europe to reduce purchases of Russian energy.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Falling | |
| RSI (14) | Slightly Falling | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Falling | |
Closing statement: The DAX remains range-bound near 23,600, caught between upbeat German data and global uncertainties. Growth concerns, geopolitical tensions, and energy politics are likely to weigh on sentiment in the sessions ahead.
