EURUSD
- EUR/USD Price: EUR/USD fell 0.66% on Wednesday, pressured by a recovering US Dollar, and is now trading near 1.1740.
- EU-US Trade: The US-EU trade deal took effect, cutting tariffs on autos and parts from 25% to 15% retroactive to August 1, while exempting EU aircraft, pharmaceuticals, natural resources, and other goods.
- Fed Outlook: Fed’s Austan Goolsbee cautioned against aggressive rate cuts, arguing the US labor market remains resilient and that inflation risks shouldn’t be dismissed as purely transitory.
- ECB Policy: The ECB is expected to hold rates steady, with President Lagarde recently stating that the disinflation phase has ended, signaling a more cautious approach.
- Diverging Opinions: While some ECB officials reject the need for additional cuts, Vice President de Guindos has kept the option open if economic conditions worsen.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Rising |  |
| RSI (14) | Slightly Falling |  |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Rising | |
Closing statement: The EUR/USD remains under pressure near 1.1740, weighed by Dollar strength, diverging central bank rhetoric, and trade policy shifts. Near-term direction hinges on Fed guidance versus ECB’s cautious stance.
GBPUSD
- GBP/USD Price: GBP/USD is trading higher near 1.3480 in early European hours on Thursday, showing a modest rebound despite ongoing macro headwinds.
- UK Data: The latest UK flash PMI report pointed to a cooling jobs market and weaker overseas demand, highlighting fragility in the broader economy.
- BoE Policy: BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill said he is now more comfortable with the inflation outlook than earlier this year, suggesting reduced urgency for aggressive tightening.
- BoE's Greene: BoE MPC member Megan Greene emphasized caution on rate cuts, warning that risks to inflation remain skewed to the upside.
- US Data: Stronger US housing data, with August new home sales jumping over 20%, lifted the Dollar, tempering Cable’s gains.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Rising | |
| RSI (14) | Slightly Falling | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Rising | |
Closing statement: The GBP/USD recovery toward 1.3480 reflects mixed drivers: softer UK data and cautious BoE commentary versus Dollar strength from upbeat US housing numbers. Near-term direction depends on whether Sterling’s resilience can withstand renewed USD demand.
XAUUSD
- XAU/USD Price: Gold (XAU/USD) rebounds to $3,745 in Wednesday’s European session, recovering from Tuesday’s drop near the $3,750 level.
- Fed’s Policy: Fed Chair Jerome Powell struck a balanced tone in Rhode Island, calling the Fed’s position a “challenging situation,” signaling caution on further moves.
- Inflation & Tariffs: Richmond Fed’s Thomas Barkin warned that tariff policies lift consumer prices and highlighted that uncertain trade policy is a bigger issue for businesses than high rates.
- US Data: Durable Goods Orders for August are projected at -0.5% MoM, an improvement on July’s steep -2.8% decline, but still signaling weakness.
- Labor Market: Markets await Initial Jobless Claims (est. 235K vs. prior 231K), with a higher print likely to feed expectations of softer labor conditions.
| SMA (20) | Rising | | |
| RSI (14) | Rising | | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Rising | | |
Closing statement: Gold’s rebound toward $3,745 is supported by a cautious Fed tone and lingering uncertainty over tariffs and trade. Upcoming Durable Goods and Jobless Claims data will be pivotal for near-term momentum in bullion.
CRUDE OIL
- Crude Oil Price: WTI crude trades at $64.50 per barrel in early Thursday’s European session, extending recent gains.
- Inventory Data: EIA data showed US crude stockpiles fell by 607K barrels for the week ending September 19, a smaller draw compared to the prior week’s sharp 9.285M decline.
- NATO–Russia Tensions: NATO warned Russia it would use all necessary military and non-military tools after repeated airspace violations over Estonia, Poland, and Romania, escalating geopolitical risks.
- Ukraine Strikes: Ukraine has stepped up drone attacks on Russian refineries and export hubs, targeting Moscow’s oil revenues and disrupting supply stability.
- Middle East: The conflict in Gaza remains intense, with a UN report accusing Israel of aiming for permanent control, adding another layer of geopolitical uncertainty for energy markets.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Falling | |
| RSI (14) | Slightly Rising | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Rising | |
Closing statement: WTI’s move higher to $64.50 is supported by tightening US inventories and mounting geopolitical risks from both Eastern Europe and the Middle East. Markets remain sensitive to supply disruptions and conflict-driven headlines.
DAX
- DAX Price: The DAX trades near 23,710 points, with modest gains on Thursday as investors search for clearer direction amid mixed signals.
- Business Climate: The IFO Business Climate index fell to 87.7 from 89, with both the current assessment and expectations deteriorating, highlighting persistent corporate pessimism.
- Sector Focus: Rheinmetall shares remain near record highs as defense demand supports the sector, while autos rebound after news of retroactive US tariff reductions boosted sentiment.
- Growth Outlook: Germany’s 2025 growth forecast was raised slightly to 0.2% by major institutes, signaling a cautious but positive shift in long-term expectations.
- Political Risk: The White House budget office instructed agencies to prepare for a potential shutdown starting Oct 1, raising concerns of global spillovers from US fiscal instability.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Falling | |
| RSI (14) | Slightly Falling | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Falling | |
Closing statement: The DAX is holding steady as defense and autos provide support, but weak business sentiment and external risks like a potential US shutdown limit upside momentum. Near-term direction will hinge on sector resilience versus persistent macro headwinds.
