Daily Analysis 30/06/2026

• GBP/USD Price: The GBP/USD pair is trading lower near the 1.3250 level during Tuesday's European session, giving back part of Monday's gains.
• UK GDP: The UK economy expanded by 0.6% during the first quarter, in line with both market expectations and the preliminary estimate published by the Office for National Statistics.
• Political agenda: The UK's likely next Prime Minister reaffirmed plans to reshape the country's economic model by devolving greater powers to regional authorities and promoting long-term, broad-based growth.
• BoE rates: According to a Reuters survey, economists expect the Bank of England to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 3.75% through the remainder of the year.
• US-Iran negotiations: Reports indicate that US and Iranian negotiators have resumed peace talks in Doha, although the timing of formal discussions remains uncertain.

Closing statement: GBP/USD is trading on the back foot as a stronger US Dollar outweighs steady UK economic fundamentals. While stable GDP growth and expectations of unchanged Bank of England policy provide support for sterling, the pair's near-term direction will likely be driven by upcoming US economic data, particularly labor market releases that could influence Federal Reserve policy expectations.

• XAU/USD Price: Gold has recovered from its intraday lows after falling to its weakest level since November 2025, climbing toward the upper end of Tuesday's trading range.
• US-Iran: Reports indicate that the United States and Iran have agreed to temporarily stand down following recent military exchanges around the Strait of Hormuz, despite both sides accusing each other of violating the ceasefire. In addition, President Donald Trump confirmed that Iran requested a meeting in Doha, with negotiations scheduled for Tuesday.
• US rates: According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders still assign roughly a 63% probability to a Federal Reserve rate hike in September and more than an 80% chance of at least one increase before year-end.
• OCBC forecast: OCBC has significantly reduced its end-2026 price forecasts for both Gold and Silver, citing a more challenging macroeconomic environment characterized by higher real interest rates, a stronger US Dollar, and softer investor demand.
• Macro outlook: The combination of easing geopolitical tensions, persistent expectations for Federal Reserve tightening, and a firm US Dollar continues to limit gold's upside potential.

Closing statement: Gold is staging a technical rebound after reaching a multi-month low, but the broader outlook remains under pressure as markets continue to price in further Federal Reserve tightening and geopolitical risks gradually subside. Unless upcoming economic data weaken the case for higher US interest rates or geopolitical tensions intensify again, XAU/USD is likely to face difficulty sustaining a meaningful recovery.

• Crude Oil Price: WTI crude oil is trading around $70.10 during Tuesday's session, with prices struggling to gain momentum.
• Strait of Hormuz: According to Reuters, KCM Trade's Tim Waterer noted that while investors are optimistic about ongoing US-Iran negotiations, a full normalization of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz has yet to materialize.
• Iraq's production: Iraq is reportedly pushing aggressively for a higher OPEC production quota, creating potential tensions within the producer group. The move comes at a sensitive time for OPEC, which is already dealing with the aftermath of regional geopolitical disruptions and the departure of the UAE, raising uncertainty over future production coordination.
• Chinese demand: China's crude oil imports have fallen nearly 30% year-over-year to approximately 7.8 million barrels per day, the lowest level since 2018. The sharp decline from the world's largest crude importer highlights weak demand conditions.
• Russia's shortages: Russian President Vladimir Putin acknowledged that the country is experiencing energy shortages that are affecting both households and industry.

Closing statement: WTI remains under pressure as soft demand, particularly from China, and expectations of higher OPEC production continue to outweigh lingering geopolitical risks. Although uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz still provides some support, the near-term outlook remains cautiously bearish unless global demand strengthens or fresh supply disruptions emerge.

• DAX 40 Price: The DAX 40 is trading modestly higher around the 24,770-point mark during Tuesday's European session.
• Retail sales: Germany's Retail Sales rose by 1.8% year-over-year in May, significantly outperforming market expectations of 0% growth and reversing the previous month's decline.
• Adidas rating: Deutsche Bank Research raised its price target for Adidas to €210 from €200 while maintaining a "Buy" recommendation, citing strong second-quarter performance driven by growing brand momentum and the Soccer World Cup.
• BASF outlook: Jefferies lowered its price target for BASF from €49 to €44 while maintaining a "Hold" rating. Although analysts expect the chemical producer to report a solid second quarter, they believe market expectations for the second half of the year have become overly optimistic.
• Bunds news: The German 10-year Bund yield fell by 2 basis points to 2.85% from 2.866%, and the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury declined by 1 basis point to 4.368% from 4.379%.

Closing statement: The DAX remains supported by stronger-than-expected German retail sales, which reinforce confidence in domestic economic resilience. However, mixed corporate developments and cautious earnings expectations continue to limit broader upside, leaving the index likely to take its next directional cue from upcoming Eurozone economic data and central bank communication.