EURUSD
- EUR/USD Price: The EUR/USD pair remains under pressure but managed to rebound from fresh one-month lows, returning to prior trading ranges in the European morning session. The tone is defensive amid sustained policy and geopolitical concerns.
- Internal Backlash: The European Commission is struggling to defend the recent EU-US agreement, as political leaders like France’s PM Bayrou and Germany’s Chancellor Merz label it a “submission” and a source of economic harm. The criticism adds political instability to already fragile market sentiment.
- ECB Survey: According to the ECB’s June Consumer Expectations Survey, 1-year inflation forecasts declined to 2.6% from 2.8%, while 3- and 5-year expectations remained steady at 2.4% and 2.1%. The continued softening of near-term inflation supports the view that price pressures are normalizing.
- Deutsche Bank: Deutsche Bank now forecasts no further ECB rate cuts, and sees the next move being a rate hike. This hawkish shift signals that the easing cycle is considered complete, reflecting improving sentiment toward the Eurozone’s inflation and economic trajectory.
- No Catalysts: Despite a technical recovery, EUR/USD remains without strong fundamental drivers. Political discord in Europe, coupled with cautious inflation forecasts, suggests that upside momentum may remain limited unless there is a shift in US economic data or Fed policy tone.
| SMA (20) | Rising |  | |
| RSI (14) | Falling |  | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Falling | |
Closing statement: The EUR/USD pair has stabilized, but broader political disunity in Europe and mixed inflation signals are keeping the euro on the defensive. A hawkish ECB outlook may offer eventual support, but near-term gains are likely to be muted unless sentiment shifts materially.
GBPUSD
- GBP/USD Price: The GBP/USD pair is staging a modest recovery on Wednesday, pulling away from earlier lows near the 1.3300 area. This bounce reflects technical support and cautious optimism following recent economic data and diplomatic developments.
- Trump–Starmer Meeting: At Trump’s Turnberry estate, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and President Trump discussed unresolved trade issues. While there is potential easing of US tariffs on UK pharmaceutical exports, tensions persist over industrial goods like steel and aluminum.
- UK Housing Sector: According to the BoE, mortgage approvals rose to 64.17k in June, exceeding expectations. Additionally, net mortgage borrowing rose significantly, suggesting robust credit demand and resilience in the housing market.
- Inflation Pressure: British shop prices climbed at the fastest pace in over a year, signaling sticky inflation even as overall economic momentum slows. This could complicate the BoE’s policy outlook if inflation proves harder to tame.
- US GDP: Markets await the preliminary Q2 US GDP figures from the BEA, due later today. A stronger-than-expected print could boost the USD and cap further gains in GBP/USD, while a weak number might support further recovery for the pound.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Rising | |
|
| RSI (14) | Falling | | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Falling | | |
Closing statement: While GBP/USD has bounced from recent lows, lingering trade uncertainties and sticky UK inflation may limit upside. The next move likely hinges on upcoming US GDP data, which could either reinforce dollar strength or provide room for further cable recovery.
XAUUSD
- XAU/USD Price: XAU/USD remains under pressure, hovering near $3,320 after four straight sessions of losses. Weaker bullish momentum and stronger US economic signals have weighed on demand for safe-haven assets like gold.
- JOLTS Numbers: The June JOLTS report revealed that job openings fell to 7.437 million, below the expected 7.5 million, suggesting a softening labor market. This adds to the narrative of a gradually cooling US economy, which could support gold in the medium term.
- US Consumer Confidence: Despite softer jobs data, consumer sentiment improved, with the Conference Board index rising to 97.2 in July. This stronger-than-expected reading underscores resilient household outlooks, reducing immediate demand for defensive assets.
- Trade Deficit: The US goods trade deficit narrowed to -$85.99B in June. Falling imports suggest tariff-related inventory adjustments and waning competitiveness of some foreign goods, signaling potential shifts in trade flows that could impact overall economic momentum.
- Fed Decision: Markets await the Federal Reserve’s policy decision on Wednesday, with consensus strongly favoring no change to current rates (4.25%–4.50%). The Fed’s tone could influence real yields, a key driver for gold in coming sessions.
| SMA (20) | Neutral | ||
| RSI (14) | Falling | | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Rising | |
Closing statement: Gold remains pressured by stronger US sentiment data and technical selling, but softening labor indicators and the upcoming Fed decision could provide near-term relief. XAU/USD direction now hinges on Fed guidance and subsequent shifts in yields and the dollar.
CRUDE OIL
- Crude Oil Price: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is hovering around $68.60 during European trading on Wednesday. While geopolitical risks provide support, inventory buildup and lack of OPEC+ clarity are tempering bullish momentum.
- New Tariffs: US President Trump has warned of additional tariffs on Russia if it fails to advance peace talks within 10 days. These threats raise geopolitical uncertainty, potentially boosting risk premiums in oil markets.
- API Report: According to the American Petroleum Institute (API), US crude stockpiles rose by 1.539 million barrels last week, contrasting with the previous decline. The surprise build may limit upside in WTI prices, reflecting softer demand or stronger supply flows.
- OPEC+ Meeting: The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) reiterated the importance of production discipline, urging overproducing members to submit compensatory plans by August 18. However, the absence of new production targets leaves the market without fresh supply guidance.
- EIA Inventory: Markets now turn to the upcoming EIA crude oil report, which could either validate or contradict the API data. A confirmed inventory build may reinforce downside risks, while a surprise draw could offer short-term price support.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Rising | |
|
| RSI (14) | Rising | | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Rising | |
Closing statement: Crude oil is navigating between geopolitical tailwinds and bearish inventory data, with OPEC+ inaction adding to uncertainty. The next directional catalyst likely comes from official EIA stock figures, with traders remaining cautious in the meantime.
DAX
- DAX Price: The DAX rose 1.03% on Tuesday, closing at 24,217, effectively erasing Monday’s losses. The rebound reflects improved investor sentiment driven by positive economic data and global outlooks.
- Retail Sales: Retail sales in Germany increased by 1.0% MoM in June, reversing a 1.6% decline in May, indicating stabilizing domestic consumption. This boost adds support to expectations of steady Q2 GDP performance.
- ECB’s Makhlouf: ECB policymaker Gabriel Makhlouf stated that the central bank has entered a “wait and see” phase. Inflation appears stable, and growth aligns with expectations, suggesting the end of further imminent rate cuts.
- IMF Outlook: The IMF raised its global growth forecast through 2026, with notable upgrades for China and the US. This bolsters optimism for export-heavy economies like Germany, supporting equity market gains.
- Eurozone Data: Markets await the Q2 GDP estimate and European Commission sentiment indicators on Wednesday. These will be pivotal for confirming whether recent optimism is grounded in economic reality or temporary.
| SMA (20) | Rising | | |
| RSI (14) | Slightly Rising | |
|
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Rising | |
Closing statement: The DAX's rally is supported by solid domestic data, a stable ECB, and an improving global outlook. However, upcoming Eurozone macro releases could be decisive in determining whether this upward momentum can be sustained.
