EURUSD
- EUR/USD Price: EUR/USD has fallen toward the 1.1600 level during Friday's European session as investors increase demand for the US Dollar.
- German inflation: Germany's preliminary HICP rose 2.8% year-on-year in July, up from 2.4% in June, indicating that inflationary pressures remain elevated.
- GDP numbers: Better-than-expected GDP figures from both Germany and the Eurozone have increased market expectations that the ECB could deliver a second interest rate hike this year, potentially as early as September.
- US-Iran tensions: Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf warned that the US would "pay the price" for recent military actions, raising fears of further escalation in the Middle East.
- Inflation data: Investors are now focused on the upcoming preliminary Eurozone inflation report, which could significantly influence expectations for the ECB's next policy decision.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Falling |  |
|
| RSI (14) | Rising |  | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Rising | |
Closing statement: EUR/USD is facing short-term pressure from renewed safe-haven demand for the US Dollar, but strong Eurozone economic data and expectations of further ECB tightening continue to provide medium-term support for the currency pair.
GBPUSD
- GBP/USD Price: GBP/USD is trading lower around the 1.3450 level during Friday's European session.
- BoE rates: The Bank of England voted 6-3 to keep interest rates unchanged, with three policymakers supporting a 25-basis-point increase.
- Middle East: Iran’s Revolutionary Guard announced attacks on US bases in Kuwait, Jordan, and Bahrain following US strikes on Iranian targets, while reaffirming that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed.
- Rate expectations: Financial markets had already priced in more than a 90% probability that the Bank of England would leave borrowing costs unchanged.
- US GDP: The US economy expanded at an annualized rate of 1.5% in the second quarter, below the 2.0% forecast, while personal consumption rose 3.2%, exceeding expectations.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Rising | |
| RSI (14) | Slightly Rising | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Rising | |
Closing statement: GBP/USD remains under pressure as geopolitical tensions fuel safe-haven demand for the US Dollar, while the Bank of England's cautious stance and resilient US consumer spending are likely to keep the pair vulnerable to further short-term downside.
XAUUSD
- XAU/USD Price: Gold is under renewed selling pressure on Friday as the US Dollar rebounds from a one-and-a-half-month low.
- US inflation: The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, matched market expectations both on a monthly and annual basis.
- Labor market: Initial jobless claims fell to 197,000, below expectations, while continuing claims also came in lower than forecast.
- Chinese data: China’s July manufacturing activity slipped into contraction for the first time in five months, highlighting slowing industrial momentum. Although authorities signaled that government spending is likely to accelerate in the second half of the year, weaker manufacturing could reduce expectations for commodity demand and weigh on market sentiment.
- Apple earnings: Apple reported record June-quarter revenue, driven by strong year-over-year growth, but its weaker-than-expected guidance for the September quarter disappointed investors.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Falling | |
| RSI (14) | Slightly Falling | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Falling | |
Closing statement: Gold is under pressure from a stronger US Dollar and resilient US economic data, but lingering concerns over global growth and cautious investor sentiment may help limit further downside in the near term.
CRUDE OIL
- Crude Oil Price: WTI crude has dropped below the important $82.96-$83.00 support zone, signaling weaker short-term momentum.
- Ukraine news: The US and Ukraine have signed a new agreement on drone technology, with Ukrainian drones set to undergo military testing in the United States.
- US inventories: US crude oil inventories recently fell by 7.2 million barrels, indicating stronger demand or tighter supply than expected.
- China role: China has played a significant role in balancing global oil markets by drawing down approximately 1.4 billion barrels from its inventories while reducing crude imports by up to 40%.
- Shipping activity: According to Bloomberg, vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz increased significantly, with fourteen commodity ships passing through the chokepoint on Wednesday compared with single-digit numbers the previous week.
| SMA (20) | Rising | | |
| RSI (14) | Slightly Rising | |
|
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Rising | | |
Closing statement: WTI remains supported by tight US supply conditions, but improving shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz and weaker technical momentum may limit further gains unless geopolitical risks escalate again.
DAX
- DAX 40 Price: Germany’s DAX 40 is trading higher around 25,850 points, approaching fresh all-time highs.
- Eurozone indicators: The Eurozone unemployment rate edged up to 6.3%, slightly above expectations, indicating a modest softening in the labor market.
- Merger talks: Commerzbank CEO Bettina Orlopp confirmed that further discussions with UniCredit regarding a potential merger will take place.
- Siemens outlook: Siemens Healthineers reduced its revenue growth forecast for the current fiscal year due to the extensive restructuring of China's healthcare system.
- BMW partnership: BMW and AUMOVIO have signed a long-term supply and development agreement aimed at expanding their technological cooperation.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Rising | |
|
| RSI (14) | Rising | | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Rising | |
Closing statement: The DAX 40 remains well-supported as improving economic sentiment and positive corporate developments outweigh isolated earnings concerns, keeping the index on track to challenge new record highs.
